When will fall weather be here to stay?

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The trees don't change color and sweater weather is a foreign concept, but there are ways to tell that fall has arrived in Texas. (Shutterstock)

Houston keeps getting teased with cold fronts and days-long spells of cooler weather, but when will autumn be here to stay?

We analyzed years of historical forecast data from Hobby Airport as archived by Weather Underground to find the exact week each year when the average weekly temperature dipped into the 70s and then -- barring the occasional warm front moving through and raising temperatures -- continued falling to usher in autum and winter weather:
  • Week of Oct. 19, 2008 through Oct. 25, 2008
  • Week of Oct. 25, 2009 through Oct. 31, 2009
  • Week of Oct. 31, 2010 through Nov. 6, 2010
  • Week of Oct. 30, 2011 through Nov. 5, 2011
  • Week of Nov. 11, 2012 through Nov. 17, 2012
  • Week of Oct. 13, 2013 through Oct. 19, 2013
  • Week of Nov. 2, 2014 through Nov. 8, 2014
  • Week of Oct. 25, 2015 through Oct. 31, 2015


If you're itching to break out your scarves and sweaters, here's the good news: Based on these criteria, autumn weather generally comes for good in the final week of October or the first week of November (so we're almost there!).

It's not uncommon for a front to sweep through and bring a few days of warmer weather even after that date, but, at least based on historical data, the final cooldown should begin soon.

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