The fire began on Monday and then spread on Tuesday thanks to favorable fire weather conditions, which included gusty winds in changing directions. The cause of the fire is still unknown, but the Texas A&M Forest Service said that 90% of wildfires across Texas are caused by humans. Most of the largest fires in state history have occurred in west and north Texas and in the months of January through May.
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Additionally, climate change could increase Texan's risks for wildfires over the next 30 years. ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith has previously covered this topic through ABC's Weathering Tomorrow initiative, which uses data from our partners at the First Street Foundation. It shows how wildfire risk, as well as heat, flood, and wind risks, will be impacted by climate change through the year 2050.
How climate change is increasing wildfire risk across Texas
For Houston, it's pretty minimal. Less than 1% of residents in Harris County are at a major risk for wildfire. But in Montgomery County, over 30% of homes and businesses, on average, are at a major risk for wildfire over the next 30 years. That's because many buildings are being built right up to tree lines or open spaces that can allow for wildfires to spread.
Looking at the state as a whole, the risk for wildfire is much greater the farther north and west you go. For the Texans Panhandle, 26 counties of the traditional 21 counties in the panhandle area have a 50% or greater risk of being impacted by a major wildfire over the next 30 years. One reason for the difference is because of the landscape. West Texas and the panhandle are flat, with vast grassy and brush-filled areas.
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"It's just based on fuel type. The grasses are finer fuels. They're flashier. They don't require as much drying, and they're dependent on wind for the fire to grow. In east Texas, it's more timber fuel. So, it goes back to the underlying dryness we see in the summer months. And 2023 was a really good example of how the hot and dry summer months can produce fires that are highly resistant to control. They may not be as big, but they can be just as impactful," Luke Kanclerz of the Texas A&M Forest Service explained.
As for the Smokehouse Creek Fire, officials are hopeful that the weather will cooperate over the next few days so crews can begin to contain the fires. As of Tuesday evening, only 3% was contained. Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 60 counties in the panhandle to aid in stopping the fires from spreading and recovery efforts thereafter.
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