Slow tropical development near the coast of Africa

August 4


8 a.m. update
There's no immediate threat for tropical development, however the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a couple of areas to watch in the Atlantic basin.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa later this week. Slow development will be possible as this system moves west. Formation odds are low (30%) during the next 5 days.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move west toward the Lesser Antilles by the weekend and into early next week. As the disturbance moves west-northwest, the chance for tropical development becomes more favorable. Development odds are low (20%) during the next 5 days.

NOAA also released an update on its Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Bottom line: the season shows no signs of slowing down as we head into the peak months.

The latest outlook says that the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15-21, including 7-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which 3-5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater).

The updated outlook includes the five named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the earliest 5th named storm on record.

According to NOAA scientists, the likelihood of an above-normal season is 65%. There's a 25% chance of a near-normal season and 10% chance of a below-normal season.



August 3


9 a.m. update
No immediate threat for tropical development, however the National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area to watch off the coast of Africa.

A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms has formed about hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of this system, will be slow as it moves northward or northwest. Formation odds are low (10%) during the next 5 days.

August 2


9 a.m. update
No new tropical development is expected within the next five days. That being said, longer range models and trends are indicating that things will be a bit more active in the weeks to come. Stay tuned.

August 1


7 a.m. update
No new tropical development is expected within the next five days. That being said, our quest stretch of tropical weather isn't likely to last long, as climatologically speaking things tend to pick up in August.

July 31


7 a.m. update
Still getting the "all quiet" signal in the tropics in the short-term (next 5 days), but longer range models and trends are indicating that as we head in to August things will be a bit more active in the weeks to come.

July 30


7 a.m. update
No new tropical development is expected within the next five days. Long range models are starting to indicate we should begin to see more tropical development in the Atlantic in the coming weeks, so stay tuned as hurricane season gets going.

July 29


7 a.m. update
No new tropical development is expected within the next five days. That being said, our quest stretch of tropical weather isn't likely to last long, as climatologically speaking things tend to pick up in August.

July 28


7 a.m. update
No new tropical development is expected within the next five days.

Saharan dust is currently draped across the Atlantic but most of the dust over Texas has dispersed. We may see some low concentrations of this dust next week.

July 27


7 a.m. update
The disturbance that has been meandering near the southeast coast has moved into Georgia and is not expected to develop.

July 26


10 a.m. update
The area of potential development in the Gulf Stream has a low chance of development, just a 30% chance over the next 5 days. This system doesn't look to have any impact on our weather here in Southeast Texas.

July 25


2 p.m. update
The area of disturbed weather off the Florida Atlantic coast has not changed much strength-wise since Saturday, but the environment remains marginally ripe for further development. The low pressure area, around 150 miles east of Daytona Beach, was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It's expected to continue drifting west-northwestward toward the the northeast coast of Florida. The chance of formation over the next 5 days remains at 50%.

7 a.m. update
A disorganized area of disturbed weather continues to brew off the Florida Atlantic coast around 160 miles east of Daytona Beach. Conditions are expected to be ripe for this area to develop, and a tropical depression forming is possible as it drifts westward.

The National Hurricane Center has now put the development chances over the next 5 days at 50%.

July 24


2 p.m. update
Showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized around a low pressure system around 200 miles off the coast of Daytona Beach, Florida. While conditions aren't ripe for development just yet, a tropical depression could develop over the next day or so as that low drifts westward toward the Florida Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center gives formation a 60% chance of development over the next 48 hours, which is a medium liklihood. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system further today.

7 a.m. update
The system off the east coast of Georgia and Florida that we've been watching is up to a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. The impacts and direction of the potential system are still uncertain, but we'll be watching it closely here on ABC13.

July 23


9 a.m. update
No issues for Texas in the foreseeable future. The only area of potential development is a low spinning up off the coast of Georgia in the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Right now that system has just a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days, and it will not have any impact on us regardless.

July 22


3 a.m. update
A disturbance currently over Mississippi will gradually push off the eastern seaboard this weekend. As it reaches the warm waters of the Gulf Stream off the east coast of Florida and Georgia it has a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. No impact is expected in Texas regardless of development.

July 20


9 a.m. update
Quiet in the tropics as Saharan dust covering much of the Atlantic and Caribbean will inhibit tropical development over the next 5 days.

The Saharan dust will eventually impact southeast Texas as early as Friday and continue through early next week.

July 19


9 a.m. update
Quiet in the tropics as Saharan dust covering much of the Atlantic and Caribbean will inhibit tropical development over the next 5 days.

The Saharan dust will eventually impact southeast Texas later this week and continue through the weekend.

July 18


No tropical development expected over the next 5 days.

July 17


For the north Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days.

July 15


9 a.m. update The Tropics are staying quiet, but the dust is moving in to Southeast Texas. You may notice a bit of haze later today and tomorrow, but it will be clearing out by Sunday.

July 15


9 a.m. update The Tropics will remain quiet due to an increase in Saharan dust.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor one area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for tropical development at this time. Formation odds at 10% during the next 5 days.

July 14


9 a.m. update The Tropics will remain quiet due to an increase in Saharan dust.

However, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring one area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for tropical development at this time. Formation odds at 10% during the next 5 days.

July 13


9 a.m. update The Tropics will remain quiet due to an increase in Saharan dust.

However, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring one area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for tropical development at this time. Formation odds at 10% during the next 5 days.

July 12


9 a.m. update
Quiet in the tropics as Saharan dust covering much of the Atlantic and Caribbean will inhibit tropical development over the next 5 days.

July 11


10 a.m. update
With Saharan dust blanketing much of the Atlantic and Caribbean, tropical development is not expected over the next 5 days.

July 10


10 a.m. update
With the remnants of Elsa clearing away from New England, we're left with quiet weather across the tropics. No development is expected over the next 5 days.

July 9


7 a.m. update
Elsa remains a Tropical Storm and is expected to move over eastern Long Island and the southern New England cost today before heading offshore late this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today.

July 8


8 a.m. update
Elsa remains a Tropical Storm as it moves across the Carolinas. Torrential rains may result in flash flooding along with tropical storm conditions that will expand from the Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday and Friday.

The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

July 7


4 p.m. update
Elsa made landfall this morning near Horseshoe Beach in Florida as a tropical storm. Elsa remains a tropical storms as it moves N at 14 mph into Georgia with max winds of 45 mph. Elsa should continue to track through Georgia & South Carolina through Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will continue to the northwest through the end of the week. Elsa is expected to weaken back to a depression over North Carolina before intensifying back into a tropical storm before moving off the east coast.

4 a.m. update
Elsa has weakened back in to a Tropical Storm, but is still battering the west coast of the Florida Peninsula this morning, poised make landfall later today north of Tampa.

July 6


7 p.m. update
Elsa has intensified back into a category one hurricane with 75 mph winds. Elsa is expected to make landfall near or north of Tampa, Florida Wednesday as a hurricane.

10 a.m. update
Elsa has maintained tropical storm strength today with a 60mph max winds and a central pressure of 1007mb's. Clear of any interaction from land, Elsa will slowly strengthen in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through early tomorrow morning, making landfall on the west coast of Florida early Wednesday as a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane.

July 5


10 a.m. update
Elsa remains a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds as it moves northwest at 14mph towards Cuba. Elsa will cross over Cuba today, likely weakening as it does so, then emerge in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Florida.

July 4


7 a.m. update
Elsa remains at Tropical Storm strength this morning, winds are 65mph with a central pressure up to 1007mb's. The forward speed has more than halved in the last 24 hours, down to just 13mph to the WNW. Models are coming in to good agreement about landfall in Florida, likely as a tropical storm, after crossing Cuba.

July 3


7 p.m. update
Tropical Storm Elsa continues to move WNW at 23 mph through the Caribbean. Elsa currently has max wind speeds of 70 mph. The latest track from the NHC puts Tropical Storm Elsa near the Florida Keys late Monday night into early Tuesday.

10 a.m. update
Elsa has weakened and has returned to tropical storm status as conditions deteriorate over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. At 11 a.m. CDT, Elsa was located around 40 miles south of Isla Beata Dominican Republic and 350 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds were 70 mph and the system was moving west-northwest at 29 mph.

July 2


7 a.m. update
Elsa has strengthened to a hurricane, making it the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic season.

No impact is expected along the Texas coast. The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center says that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and St. Lucia.

July 1


11 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Elsa formed Thursday morning in the Atlantic Ocean and is currently about 680 miles ESE of the Windward Islands.

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center found Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour and is racing westward at 28 miles per hour.

Over the next day or two Elsa is expected to speed up, tracking toward the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to arrive at those islands sometime Friday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

July 1


8:30 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Elsa formed Thursday morning in the Atlantic Ocean over 700 miles ESE of the Windward Islands.

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center found Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and moving quickly westward at 25 miles per hour.

Over the next day or two Elsa is expected to speed up, tracking toward the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to arrive at those islands sometime Friday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

July 1


6:30 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Elsa formed Thursday morning in the Atlantic Ocean.

Elsa's July 1 formation is the earliest for any fifth-named storm on record, breaking a record set last year by Edouard.

The 5 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center found Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and is located about 865 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

Over the next day or two Elsa is expected to speed up, tracking toward the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to arrive at those islands sometime Friday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

It's still too early to tell if and when the system will make landfall in the contiguous United States, but preliminary forecasts show Elsa could arrive at the southern tip of Florida around Tuesday.

June 30


10 p.m. update
Tropical Depression five has formed about 1,100 miles east of the Windward Islands in the central Atlantic. It's expected to become Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday.

June 30


4 p.m. update
Potential Storm Five has formed in the central Atlantic 1,195 miles east of the Windward Islands. The system is expected to move into the eastern Caribbean Friday afternoon, then possibly into the eastern Gulf late Monday. At this time, the storm does not appear to be a threat to the upper Texas coast. We will, of course, keep a close eye on it.

June 30


8 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic. The tropical wave closest to the Lesser Antilles has a low chance for development during the next 5 days. Formation odds at 10%.

Meanwhile, the system located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has a 60% chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours, 80% chance during the next 5 days. Atmospheric conditions remian favorable for potential tropical development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves west-northwest at about 20 mph.

June 29


8 a.m. update
Danny has dissipated however, lingering moisture from this system will result in periods of heavy rain for parts of Georgia and Alabama on Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring two tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic. Slow development will be possible with both of these systems. The tropical wave closest to the Lesser Antilles has a medium chance for development during the next 5 days. Formation odds at 40%. Meanwhile, the system southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 20% chance for tropical development.

June 28


2 p.m. update
Tropical depression four has strengthened to Tropical Storm Danny with 40 mph winds. Danny will continue to move west, making landfall in South Carolina this evening.

10 a.m. update
Tropical Depression Four has formed just off the east coast with wind speeds of 35 mph and is moving WNW at 16 mph. It is expected to become a tropical storm before making landfall in South Carolina Monday night. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the South Carolina coast.

9 a.m. update
The highest chance for storm development is from a system off the east coast of the US, about 250 miles ESE of Savannah Georgia. That system has a 70% chance of development in the next 5 days, but will not be impacting the Gulf of Mexico. Another system in the Atlantic has a 40% chance of development.

June 27


5 a.m. update
We're still monitoring a wave off the coast of Africa, but the chance for development remains low, just 30% over the next 5 days. Another area of potential development off the eastern seaboard has a 20% chance for development, but poses no threat to the Gulf.

June 26


8 a.m. update
We're still monitoring a wave off the coast of Africa, but the chance for development is just 10% over the next 5 days.

June 25


8 a.m. update
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa. Showers and thunderstorms with this system are disorganized and development, if any will be slow to occur.

Formation odds are low at 20%. This wave is expected to move west to north-west at 15 to 20 mph toward the central Atlantic through the middle of next week.

June 24


8 a.m. update
There are two areas of disturbed weather that the National Hurricane Center will monitor over the next 5 days.

A tropical wave east of Barbados remains disorganized and only has a 10% chance for tropical development.

A stronger tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and has a medium chance for development during the next 5 days. Formation odds at 40%. A small tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves west.

June 23


8 a.m. update
Much of the Atlantic is quiet for now. A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands remains disorganized.

Formation odds have decreased to 10% and the development of this system is unlikely as it tracks toward the west-northwest.

June 22


9 a.m. update
Claudette is quickly moving away from the east coast and will continue to to weaken on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, monitoring another area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles for a 30% chance of development while it tracks west.

June 21


4 p.m. update
Claudette is quickly moving away from the east coast. Now that it's moving towards cooler water, it will slowly weaken into a depression on Tuesday. Another disturbance in the Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles has a 30% chance of developing as it moves west.

June 21


4 a.m. update
Claudette has regained Tropical Storm strength and status with 40mph winds as it moves across North Carolina. The system will continue pushing east and be off eastern seaboard later today.

June 20


7 a.m. update
Tropical Depression
Claudette continues to move toward the east-northeast over the Deep South at around 13 mph. It's expected to move over the coast of North Carolina by Monday and into the western Atlantic Ocean. Maximum sustained winds remained near 30 mph and some re-strengthening was expected tonight.

5 a.m. update
Tropical Depression Claudette is located over Alabama and moving east in to Georgia this morning. The storm currently has winds of 30mph, but is forecast to regain strength and become a Tropical Storm again on Monday, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for coastal North Carolina and parts of South Carolina.

June 19


4 p.m. update
Claudette is now a tropical depression with 35 mph winds, but it will continue to bring heavy rains to states in the Southeast. The low pressure circulation should survive its trek across the Appalachian Mountains, and it could regain tropical storm strength near the Carolinas once it moves over the Atlantic Ocean. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the North Carolina coastline from Cape Fear to Duck. Moisture extending southwest from Claudette over the Gulf should blow into Southeast Texas Sunday, bringing us a chance for scattered downpours on Father's Day.

June 19


11 a.m. update
Claudette remains a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph after moving inland, the center of circulation is over Mississippi, with the heaviest of the rain pushing through the Florida Panhandle. This storm will move briskly east-northeast over the next 48 hours, continuing to clear away from Texas.

7 a.m. update
Claudette moved inland over southeast Louisiana overnight, bringing tropical storm-force winds and flooding rains to that region. Tropical Storm Warnings were still in effect for the Louisiana coast and extended eastward to Florida. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph hour with higher gusts. The areas of Covington, Mandeville, Slidell, and other communities along the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana were experiencing the direct impacts of the storm Saturday morning.

The system is expected to make a turn toward the northeast later today and weaken to a tropical depression.

4 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Claudette has formed as it makes landfall in SE Louisiana. Claudette currently has 45mph winds, and is bringing the heaviest rain in to Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Tropical Storm Warnings stretch from Louisiana to panhandle of Florida. Impacts in Texas are minimal, but we will see dangerous rip currents on our beaches this morning, a beach hazard statement has been issued through 10am.

June 18


7a.m. update
Outer rain bands from Potential Storm Three will impact coastal areas along the northern Gulf coast beginning Friday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

All of the severe impacts will stay east of Texas, but we still have elevated tides Friday and a small chance for rain. The best local chance for rain related to this potential storm will come on Father's Day, long after it has made landfall. If your travel plans take you east of Texas anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle this weekend, here are the predicted impacts from the National Hurricane Center:

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama on Saturday.

June 17


9:45 p.m. update
There is very little change to the forecast for Potential Storm Three. It remains disorganized, but it is predicted to become Tropical Storm Claudette sometime Friday.



June 17


3:45 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center just issued their first forecast for Potential Storm Three.



A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

All of the severe impacts will stay east of Texas, but we still have elevated tides Friday and a small chance for rain. The best local chance for rain related to this potential storm will come on Father's Day, long after it has made landfall. If your travel plans take you east of Texas anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle this weekend, here are the predicted impacts from the National Hurricane Center:

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama on Saturday.

The next forecast from the National Hurricane Center will come out by 10 p.m.

June 17


7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center upgraded formation odds to 90% over the next 48 hours of the system in the Bay of Campeche. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system on Thursday, especially if it begins to show signs of organization. Once a closed low level circulation with thunderstorms surrounding it is located, the system will be designated a tropical depression or storm. Please keep up with the latest since the forecast could change quickly.

June 16


7 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now says "a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico."

Even if a tropical depression does not form on Thursday, it is possible we will get our first forecast cone for the potential storm. The National Hurricane Center will issue forecasts for a developing system that is expected to become a tropical depression or storm if it is within 48 hours from making landfall.

June 16


1 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center is maintaining the 70% chance for development over the next 2 days of the system in the Bay of Campeche. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system on Thursday, especially if it begins to show signs of organization. Once a closed low level circulation with thunderstorms surrounding it is located, the system will be designated a tropical depression or storm. Please keep up with the latest since the forecast could change quickly.

June 16


7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a 70% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days.

The potential formation zone extends northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

Impacts here are still "to be determined" based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we'll get here.

June 15


11:00 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days.



June 15


12:30 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.



June 15


7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

June 14


9:45 p.m. update
Tropical Storm Bill has formed off the East Coast. It is no threat to land.



June 14


2 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.



The potential formation zone has been extended northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

Impacts here are still "to be determined" based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we'll get here.

June 14


11 a.m. update
Tropical Depression Two forms off the coast of North Carolina. Additional strengthening is expected and this could become Tropical Storm Bill later tonight. This system should begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

8 a.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 60% through Saturday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father's Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

There are two other areas the National Hurricane Center has tagged for tropical development. An area of low pressure off the East Coast has a 70% chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. This system will be competing to grab the next name on the Atlantic hurricane list: Bill.

A strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 20% chance of tropical development during the next 5 days.

June 13


7 p.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 50% through Friday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father's Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf. The next name on the list is Bill.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

June 13


7 a.m. update
There's no major change in the modeling or expectations for our Gulf system, but we're now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days, and there's high uncertainty as far as any potential impacts to Southeast Texas.

It's not something you should be overly concerned with at the moment, but it remains an area we'll continue to monitor.

June 12


2 p.m. update
We are continuing to monitor an area of showers and storms in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next 5 days. Slow development will be a possibility over the next few days but it is still way too early to know what impacts, if any, we could see along the Gulf Coast from this disturbance.

7 a.m. update
The area we are monitoring in the Gulf now has a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days. It's too early for specifics on exact impacts, but the moisture will gradually lift north. For now it's just something we will be keeping an eye on.

READ MORE: Here's today's hour-by-hour forecast and an outlook for the next ten days

June 11



9 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center has tagged an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche with a 20% chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Slow development will be possible as this system lifts to the north to northwest. It is still too early to determine what impacts our region could see. Residents along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 10



9 a.m. update
No imminent threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

However, the Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week. Resident along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 9



8 a.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 10% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center expects conditions to become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

June 8



6 p.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 20% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

2 p.m. update
Formation chance with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean has dropped to a 20% chance over the next five days.

10 a.m. update
Some gradual development will be possible with a tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean over the next few days. Formation chance is just at 30% over the next 5 days, we'll continue to monitor it.

Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions of Central America later this week and into the weekend.

June 7


Our tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean remains at just a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days, we'll continue to monitor it.

June 6


There's a 20% (low) chance of tropical development over the next 5 days in an area just east of Central America in the southern Caribbean Sea. An area of low pressure could develop by the end of the week and may try to gradually strengthen as it moves northwest. We'll continue to monitor this area.

June 5


No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

However, NOAA is giving us an early heads up with "high confidence" that one or more tropical systems may spin up in the western Caribbean Sea between June 9th and June 15th.

Why?
Because a large area of low pressure known as the "Central American Gyre" is expected to spin up, and these often will produce one or more smaller low pressure systems that can break off and develop into tropical depressions and storms. There's no way to know exact details at this time and there's certainly nothing to worry about right now, but we do want you to at least be casually aware of the possibility just in case.

June 4


No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca has weakened to a post-tropical cyclone and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

Just east of Blanca, an area of disturbed area is being monitored for potential tropical development. The formation chance is at 60% during the next 5 days. A tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico.

June 3


No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca is now a tropical depression and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

June 2


No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

June 1


Today is the official start of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

May 31


No tropical development is expected as the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off tomorrow.

However, in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Two-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it drifts south of Mexico. This system is expected to remain below hurricane strength and eventually fall apart as it moves over cooler water.

A tropical wave is just west of Two-E and has a slim chance for tropical development during the next five days.

May 26


There are no areas of concern for development for the next 5 days in the Atlantic, Gulf or Caribbean.

May 24


Ana has dissipated and no tropical development is expected during the next five days.

May 23


11 p.m. update
Ana is now a post-tropical cyclone and should dissipate Monday as it moves northeast farther out into the Atlantic.

3 p.m. update
Ana has now been downgraded to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Ana is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight as it moves northeast out farther into the Atlantic.

12 p.m. update
Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic as it churns around 425 miles northeast of Bermuda. Ana's maximum sustained winds were around 40 mph Sunday morning and was moving northeast at approximately 14 mph. An increase in forward speed was expected in the next day or so. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles and there are no impacts to land. Ana is expected to weaken and dissipate by Monday.

5 a.m. update
Still plenty of moisture in SE Texas from the disturbance that moved through early Saturday morning, with light rain expected in Houston and heavier rain to our southwest. Elsewhere, 340 miles to the northeast of Bermuda our first named storm, Ana, continues to gradually move northeast over open water. Ana will not make landfall anywhere, and will dissipate early next week.



May 22


11 p.m. update
The tropical disturbance that brought us our rain chance today continues to lift to the north.

Subtropical Storm Ana formed early Saturday and is now making its way northeast out to sea in the Atlantic. It is currently 270 miles northeast of Bermuda and is moving northeast at 9 mph. Ana currently has sustained wind speeds of 45 mph but is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours... eventually dissipating by Monday.

1 p.m. update
Our tropical disturbance responsible for bringing showers to SE Texas today continues to spin through the Hill Country. The moisture that it continues to pump into our area has produced widely scattered showers, especially west of I-45.

SubTropical Storm Ana, our first named storm of the season, is lifting away from Bermuda and poses no threat to land.

10 a.m. update
Subtropical storm Ana formed in the Atlantic Ocean early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ana was located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda Saturday morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The system was expected to continue its slow and erratic motion, and then dissipate in a few days, forecasters said.

Here in the Houston area, the Gulf tropical disturbance continues to weaken and move to the north-northwest. Outer rain bands will continue to impact the Houston area today. A wind advisory has been extended for the Bolivar Peninsula, coastal Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria and Galveston Island until 4 p.m. Coastal flood advisories continue for Chambers, coastal Brazoria, Galveston and Harris counties until 7 a.m. Sunday.

7 a.m. update
The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings for several rivers and streams across the region as rain-swollen banks continue to be impacted by scattered showers today. Impacts from the disturbance continue to include locally heavy rainfall, breezy conditions along the coast, elevated tides and marine hazards. The center of the system should push northwest throughout the day. The highest rain chances through noon should be along and west of the Brazos River. Those rain chances will expand across the area later today.

5 a.m. update
The disturbance in the Gulf moved inland near Port Lavaca, and the National Hurricane Center doesn't expect any more development. Locally, our impacts remain unchanged from prior updates, scattered showers and storms with breezy 30-40mph wind gusts possible, especially along the coast. The NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Warning through 7 a.m. for our coastal communities.

In a much different part of the world, northeast of Bermuda, we now have our first named storm: Subtropical Storm Ana has formed. This storm will have no direct impact on land, and is only notable for being our first named storm of the year, arriving before hurricane season officially begins.



May 21



1 p.m. update
The NHC is now giving the disturbance in the Gulf a 30% chance of development (becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm).


The impacts in our area will be minor regardless of development. We can expect scattered showers and storms along with wind gusts over 30 mph overnight and through Saturday, with rain tapering off from east to west on Sunday.

Still, if it makes landfall in Texas at tropical depression or storm strength, it'll be the first in recorded history to do so before June 1, the customary start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

1 p.m. update
A large area of thunderstorms in the western Gulf is drifting northwest towards the Texas coast.

Conditions are slightly favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance. Whether it develops or not, it'll give us at least scattered, heavy downpours overnight and through the day on Saturday.

High rain rates along with the slow movement of the storms means some flooding will be possible. Gusty winds and coastal flooding may also be an issue near the coast.

May 20, 2021


According to the latest NOAA outlook, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be busier than normal, but it's unlikely to be as crazy as 2020's record-shattering year.

They're expecting 13-20 tropical storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, although storms can form before and after those dates.

During hurricane season, ABC13 meteorologists will provide daily tropical weather updates on this page.








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