There are seven statewide races this November. While it's possible a Democrat could win one or more, the odds and recent history are against them with some 35 days out from Election Day.
At the very top of the ballot is the race for governor between two-term incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke. The men faced off in their one, and likely only, debate late Friday on the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley campus in Edinburg.
"I don't think Greg Abbott wakes up wanting kids (to be) shot in their schools, or for the grid to fail," O'Rourke said at the end of the hour-long debate. "But, it is clear that he is incapable, or unwilling, to make the changes necessary to prioritize the lives of our fellow Texans."
Abbott's closing statement discusses how Texas leads the country in jobs and other economic metrics.
"I'm running for re-election to keep Texas number one," Abbott said. "To cut your property taxes. To secure the border. To keep dangerous criminals behind bars, and to keep deadly fentanyl off our streets. Together, we will keep Texas number one."
O'Rourke has drawn large, enthusiastic crowds across the state, and polling has him within striking distance, but it is still an uphill climb against a twice-elected governor who has never faced a real challenge.
Cal Jillson is one of the state's leading political scientists and teaches at Southern Methodist in Dallas. Jillson says the grid, guns, and abortion could change the landscape between now and Election Day.
"O'Rourke has to be closing the gap in order to have a real chance on Election Day," Jillson told ABC13. "If you got an electric grid collapse because of inordinately hot weather late here in the summer. Another school shooting, if that were to happen, could do it. Or if you think about a particularly dramatic abortion case."
And it might take something dramatic.
According to a new analysis out Monday from our partners at FiveThirtyEight, in 40,000 simulations of the election, Greg Abbott wins 95% of the time.
Of course, Abbott-O'Rourke is not the only statewide race. Also atop the ballot are two races polling closer than that for governor. They are for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
Rochelle Garza is running for attorney general. She won a crowded Democratic primary to face incumbent Republican Ken Paxton.
"I'm going to be using the power of this office to fight for us. To fight for Texans," Garza told ABC13. "We are making sure that we are reaching every single Texan, and people are seeing themselves in this campaign. That's part of the reason why we're closing in on Ken Paxton."
Paxton has served both of his terms under indictment on securities-related charges and is under investigation for abuse of office and ethics violations. But, he won his primary handily and led Garza, a civil rights attorney, in all polling, as did Lt. Governor Dan Patrick over Democratic challenger Mike Collier. The two men faced off four years ago.
Former political consultant and the founder of Outreach Strategists, Mustafa Tameez, sees an opening for both Democrats.
"The voting patterns have gotten closer and closer to favoring Democrats, but they never close, and this coming election, there's an opportunity," Tameez said.
Collier sees it too. He spoke to us in September about several retiring Republicans endorsing his campaign.
"They see in me the kind of leader that I think we ought to have," Collier said. "The lieutenant governor is a very important position on the cutting edge of solving these problems, and they see me as a problem-solver."
But is that opportunity enough for either to win in, what is still, a very red state?
"Today, it looks as if the Republicans are going to win as a state, unless something captures voters' attention and makes them think a little bit differently," Jillson said.
We have reached out to the Paxton and Patrick campaigns multiple times, including again on Monday, but their campaigns have not responded to our requests.
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