La Niña conditions continue
First, La Niña conditions are still present and are expected to continue through the end of April. For Houston and Southeast Texas, this favors drier than normal conditions, but that doesn't mean the region will be completely rain-free. Drought conditions will likely continue through the end of spring and potentially linger into the summer.
By May, long-range climate models hint that water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could transition to be closer to normal, then be warmer than normal later this year. This would signal the start of an El Niño, so the Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch for June through August.
Prior to an El Niño forming, we must mention the transition period between the current La Niña and the forecast El Niño. This is when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are near normal, called ENSO Neutral or nicknamed "La Nada." This period will likely coincide with the start of hurricane season and is something Texans must note. Historically, "La Nada" years have favored tropical systems making landfall along the Texas coast over La Niña and El Niño seasons combined. In fact, 15 storms have made landfall during a "La Nada," most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024.
El Niño Watch could bring sweltering heat
But a developing El Niño could help keep the tropics quiet later into hurricane season if one were to form. This is due to the strength and location of the jet stream over the tropics. Areas of wind shear over the Caribbean and western Atlantic are a staple of an El Niño pattern, and wind shear would traditionally limit storms from forming and lead to a less active season. It's the opposite in the eastern Pacific, though, which could favor a more active hurricane season.
On the flip side, our most recent El Niño summer was in 2023. And while the tropics were quiet, that summer now ranks as the hottest on record for the city of Houston, with many other heat-related records broken that summer as well.
Super El Niño
Furthermore, you may have heard that the impending El Niño could be a Super El Niño. But that's nothing new, just rare. Super El Niños occur about every 10 to 20 years and are characterized by sea surface temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal, lasting for at least three months.
Recent Super El Niños include the winters of 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016. Historically, summers going into Super El Niño have tended to be warmer and drier than normal conditions for Houston, but that doesn't rule out extreme events like storms or hurricanes. The ABC News Climate Unit also notes that there is usually a delay between the onset of El Niño and its associated effects, meaning it will likely be well into the second half of the year before impacts begin to unfold, based on the latest forecasts.