The easy part for the Houston Texans is done, as they've clinched a playoff spot last week.
Unfortunately, the Texans no longer fully control their own destiny, as they can finish as either the AFC's top or bottom seed in the playoffs.
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Here's every scenario possible and the likelihood of it happening.
To clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC and homefield advantage throughout playoffs:
ESPN's Football Power Index gives this a 0.3 percent chance of happening, but the Texans would need:
- A win versus the Jacksonville Jaguars
- A New England Patriots loss or tie
- A Kansas City Chiefs loss
- A Los Angeles Chargers loss
- And a 'strength of victory' tiebreaker versus the Chiefs, which is the combined win-loss-tie percentage of all the opponents that a team has defeated.
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To clinch the No. 2 seed and a first round bye:
The FPI gives this a 10 percent change of happening, and there's more than one way to make it happen. Houston needs:
- A win and a Patriots loss or tie
- Or, a Texans tie and a Patriots loss
- Or, a Texans win combined with a Chiefs loss, a Chargers loss, and the Chargers winning a strength of victory tiebreaker over the Chiefs
- Or, a Texans loss, combined with a Patriots loss, a Titans-Colts tie, a Baltimore Ravens win, and the Texans winning the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Ravens.
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To clinch the No. 3 seed and the AFC South title:
One of the easiest scenarios with a 67 percent chance of happening. The Texans just need:
- A win against the Jaguars
- Or, a loss to the Jaguars, with the Colts and Titans ending in a tie.
To clinch the No. 6 seed:
The FPI gives Houston a 23 percent chance to finish last in the AFC playoff picture. In order for that to happen, the Texans need:
- A loss to the Jaguars, and either the Colts or Titans win their Sunday night showdown.