The worst-case models for new daily cases in Texas show an increase into April to a high of 17,500 new cases per day before declining, but staying strong at around 10,000 new cases per day through the summer.
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The same model shows an almost complete elimination of the virus by July if mask-wearing continues.
Daily deaths are projected to decline to under 250 across the state, but as the month continues, splits and holds at 100 without masks in a worst-case scenario. Much of the uncertainty in the data centers on whether a majority of people will continue wearing masks and whether variants will continue to spread, even among vaccinated patients.
READ ALSO: Model projections for TX show 'worst-case' without mask order
Model projections for TX show 'worst-case' without mask order
Support for mask-wearing continues to be strong, according to the data. Three out of four Texans say they support a mandate and would continue to wear masks, even after the mandate went away.
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It's too early for full opening, said IHME Director Chris Murray during a CNN interview Tuesday. While signs look good, he says the risk for numbers spiking again is real - as case numbers go up in Texas.
"I think there's a real risk that transmission can plateau for quite a while and even go back up if people increasingly stop wearing masks and have large gatherings," Murray said.
Data from Johns Hopkins University on Tuesday showed the two-week rolling average of new cases in the state has increased by 500.3 per day, or 10.1%. The uptick came as the state prepared to lift its masking mandate Wednesday.
The state health department on Tuesday reported a little over 4,800 new confirmed or probable cases, bringing the state's pandemic total to almost 2.7 million, an estimated 128,614 of which are now active. Texas hospitals had 4,702 COVID-19 cases on Monday, the most recent day available, 373 more than on Sunday.
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The 167 new COVID-19-related fatalities reported Tuesday bring the state's pandemic death toll to 44,650.
The model says that by July 1, one billion people in the Americas will have received the vaccine, a welcome data point for most.
The IHME model was developed by the Washington School of Medicine as a way for hospitals and researchers to project where case counts could go.
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