Two named storms in the Atlantic, no threat to Gulf

September 25


10 a.m.
We're watching two storms in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Teresa and Hurricane Sam, neither are expected to impact the US. Sam has strengthened to a Cat 3 storm and could reach Cat 4 strength later today. There are no current storms, nor potential storms, over the next 5 days in the Gulf.

September 24


4 a.m.
Early this morning Sam was upgraded to a hurricane. Sam is expected to rapidly intensify, reaching major hurricane status as early as tonight. Thankfully this storm is expected to stay well away from the Gulf, and will likely avoid a US landfall entirely.

September 23


11 a.m.
Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthens into Tropical Storm Sam. Additional strengthening is expected as the system moves west. By the end of the weekend, Sam will be near major hurricane intensity.

September 23


9 a.m.
Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed in the open Atlantic, no threat to the Gulf. This system is expected to strengthen and become Sam over the next 24 hours.

We also have two areas we are watching for possible development. One is farther north and has a 60% chance of development within the next 5 days. We have another disorganized area of showers and storms just west off the coast of Africa. This has an 20% chance of development within the next 5 days.

September 22


5 a.m.
Tropical Depressions Peter and Rose continue to move north through the open Atlantic... both expected to stay well to the east of the United States. We also have two areas we are watching for possible development. One is farther north and has a 50% chance of development within the next 5 days. We have another disorganized area of showers and storms just west off the coast of Africa. This has an 80% chance of development within the next 2 days. The next names on the tropical name list are Sam and Teresa.

September 21


9 a.m.
Tropical Storm Rose has formed in the Atlantic, the storm is expected to stay out to sea and not make any impact to the United States.

Behind Rose, another tropical disturbance has a high chance for tropical development during the next 5 days. Formation odds at 90 percent. The Gulf remains quiet with no active storms and no potential development over the next 5 days.

September 20


9 a.m.
Tropical Storm Rose has formed in the Atlantic, the storm is expected to stay out to sea and not make any impact to the United States.

Behind Rose, another tropical disturbance has a high chance for tropical development during the next 5 days. Formation odds at 70 percent. The Gulf remains quiet with no active storms and no potential development over the next 5 days.

September 19


5 a.m.
Tropical Storm Peter has formed in the Atlantic, the storm is expected to hook out to sea and not make any impact to the United States. Behind Peter we also have Tropical Depression 17, another storm which will not impact us here in the US. The Gulf remains quiet with no active storms and no potential development over the next 5 days.

September 18


11 a.m.
The tropics remain active, but without any immediate or imminent threat to the US. Tropical Storm Odette is moving away from the northeast, while two other areas of interest are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, but neither is likely to make landfall in the US. The Gulf remains quiet with no active storms and no areas of interest.

September 17


10 a.m.
Remnants of Nicholas is still bringing flash flooding rains across parts of the central Gulf Coast. Movement continues north around 7 mph.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas in the Atlantic for potential tropical development. No threat to land is expected during the next 5 days.

At this time, there are no tropical threats to Texas.

September 16


11 a.m.
Nicholas is now a Post Tropical Storm still bringing the threat for flash flooding across parts of the central Gulf Coast. Movement continued east-northeast at around 5 mph. Movement toward the north at 2 mph.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas in the Atlantic for potential tropical development. No threat to land is expected during the next 5 days.

At this time, there are no tropical threats to Texas.

September 15


11 a.m.
The center of what was once Hurricane Nicholas hasn't moved much since our last update. The center of circulation of the now-tropical depression was around 30 miles northeast of Lake Charles with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. Movement continued east-northeast at around 5 mph.

9 a.m.
Nicholas continues to move slowly to the east with 30 mph maximum sustained winds. Its center was around 15 miles north-northeast of Port Arthur and 35 miles west of Lake Charles. The system was crawling at around 3 mph due east. Rain continues to fall across south Louisiana, and another three to six inches was expected across the region.

September 14



6:43 p.m.
Nicholas has weakened to Tropical Depression as it slowly moves across southeast Texas.

1 p.m.
Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to weaken as it moves ENE across SE Texas. The center is currently located over Texas City, but all of the heavy rain remains well to the east into Louisiana. Today we could experience some light spotty showers and gusty winds at times. Winds should calm down as we head into the afternoon to evening.

Nicholas is expected to weaken to tropical depression status by this evening.

Watches and warnings have expired for our area.

September 14


10 a.m.
Nicholas now has 45 mph winds as it continues to weaken and move east, leaving us with a day of off and on light rain and occasionally gusty winds. Watches and warnings are being dropped from SE TX as Nicholas weakens and moves east towards Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

7 a.m.
Nicholas is a weakening tropical storm as it pushes across Houston with winds of 60mph. The heaviest of the rain and winds are offset to the east of the center of circulation, but we're still seeing gusty winds and significant power outages across the area. Conditions will gradually improve throughout the day.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

6 a.m.

A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 9 a.m. for northeastern Brazoria County, southwestern Chambers County, Galveston County and Harris County. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of customers are without electricity in southeast Texas. You can keep up with the power outages here.



4 a.m.

The latest advisory from the National Weather Service has downgraded Nicholas to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. The strongest of the winds are still along the coast, but tropical storm force winds have been pushing inland to Houston and beyond, causing over 300,000 power outages this morning.

3:41 a.m.

The National Weather Service in League City issued a Flash Flood Warning until 7:30 a.m. for Brazoria, Chamber, Galveston and Harris counties

12:55 a.m.
Hurricane Nicholas made landfall near 12:30 a.m. on the eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles west-southwest of Sargent Beach, Texas.



September 13


10 p.m.
Nicholas has reached cat. 1 hurricane strength, with winds of 75 mph. Nicholas is expected to make landfall between Matagorda and Freeport. Strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge threat continues, especially for the coastline.

The Hurricane Watch from Port O'Connor to Freeport, Texas has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.



EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6-12" inches with isolated amounts close to 18" in our coastal counties. Total rainfall within Harris County will range from 1-3" in northwest Harris County to 3-5" in southeast Harris County. Many counties north and west of Houston will generally pick up 2" or less.

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to High Island including Matagorda Bay & Galveston Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from High Island into SW Louisiana.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) are expected from Port O'Connor north to Freeport for the next few hours. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas through the night.



9 p.m.
Nicholas has taken a jog east and is now paralleling the Texas coastline. If this eastward motion continues, Houston will be spared from flooding, but the winds will still get gusty at times.

Plus, a Flash Flood Warning was issued for parts of Brazoria, Matagorda and Galveston counties until 1:45 a.m.



Winds are gusting to hurricane force around Matagorda Bay.

September 13


7:30 p.m.
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Brazoria, Jackson and Matagorda counties until 10:30 p.m. Roughly one to three inches of rain have already fallen and an additional two to three inches are possible within the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or will start soon.



EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6-12" inches with isolated amounts close to 18" in our coastal counties. Total rainfall within Harris County will range from 1-3" in northwest Harris County to 3-5" in southeast Harris County. Many counties north and west of Houston will generally pick up 2" or less.

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass through the upper TX coastline and into southwestern Louisiana.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, Brazoria, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas through the night.

LANDFALL TIMING:


Landfall is expected to occur in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay or in Matagorda County around 10 pm Monday. The core rains of Nicholas will push east of Houston by sunrise.

PREVIOUS UPDATES:
7 p.m.
Tropical Storm Nicholas strengthens and is now producing 70 mph sustained winds as it nears the TX coastline. The pressure has also dropped down to 988 mb. It is currently about 35 miles SSW of Matagorda. Heavy rain and strong wind gusts are impacting our coastal communities and will continue to do so into this evening and into the overnight.

September 13


4 p.m.
Nicholas has strengthened to a 65 mph tropical storm, and additional strengthening is expected before it makes landfall near Matagorda Bay or in Matagorda County this evening. It continues moving north-northeast at 12 mph. The pressure has dropped to 1000 mb. Heavy rains are impacting our coastal counties and will continue to do so for the next several hours.

Recent radar observations and computer model data suggest it will be a rough night in our coastal counties, but much of Houston may dodge the most intense rains that could lead to flash flooding. Many communities north and west of Houston will receive less than 1" of rain, if any at all, overnight.



EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6-12" inches with isolated amounts close to 18" in our coastal counties. Total rainfall within Harris County will range from 1-4" in northwest Harris County to 4-10" in southeast Harris County. Many counties north and west of Houston will generally pick up 2" or less.

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass through the upper TX coastline and into southwestern Louisiana.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, Brazoria, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas through the night.

LANDFALL TIMING:


Landfall is expected to occur in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay or in Matagorda County around 9 p.m. The core rains of Nicholas will push east of Houston by sunrise.

September 13


1 p.m.
Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to move north at 12 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. The latest track from the NHC has Nicholas making landfall this evening between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay.

No changes to the watches or warnings in the area. The Tropical Storm warning continues for Liberty, Harris, Wharton, Fort Bend, Brazoria and Galveston counties.

11 a.m.
There is a high risk of flooding today and tonight. Due to this, you're being urged to plan on staying in and not out on the roads no later than sunset, preferably earlier. You're being urged to remain off the roads until the system passes during the day Tuesday.



10 a.m.
The latest update from the NHC has Nicholas with 60mph moving north at 12mph. No major changes have been made to the track. Flooding remains a significant concern in Southeast Texas, with the heaviest of the rain falling tonight through tomorrow morning. Tropical Storm Force winds will also spread across the area late tonight and in to tomorrow morning. Here is a summary of watches and warnings:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay

EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts close to 20" especially near our coastal areas. Areas northwest of Houston will see slightly lower totals most likely between 2-6".

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass through the upper TX coastline and into southwestern Louisiana.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, Brazoria, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas starting Monday and continuing through Monday night.

LANDFALL TIMING:


Landfall is expected to occur in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay sometime Monday evening. This means the worst impacts from Nicholas will begin Monday afternoon and increase through the night, subsiding by Tuesday afternoon.

7:00 a.m.

With the latest advisory Nicholas remains a Tropical Storm with 60mph winds, but the storm has slowed and is now moving WNW at 5mph. The forecast from the NHC does continue to clear the storm from our area late Tuesday and not stall the system. We'll see off and on heavy rain through the morning, with more consistent rain later today and tonight, and conditions will rapidly deteriorate late tonight through tomorrow as winds pick up. Wherever you are when the sun sets tonight is where you should plan on staying through Tuesday afternoon.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts close to 20" especially near our coastal areas. Areas northwest of Houston will see slightly lower totals most likely between 2-6".

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass through the upper TX coastline and into southwestern Louisiana.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, Brazoria, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas starting Monday and continuing through Monday night.

LANDFALL TIMING:


Landfall is expected to occur in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay sometime Monday evening. This means the worst impacts from Nicholas will begin Monday afternoon and increase through the night, subsiding by Tuesday afternoon.

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:


The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. It runs southwest along the coast to Port Arthur. It also extends inland into Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, and coastal Brazoria Counties.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High Island, Texas and now covers all of our local coastline down through Calhoun County. The tropical storm warning also extends inland into Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Galveston, southeast Harris, Jackson, southern Liberty, and Matagorda Counties.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Galveston Island to Rutherford Beach, Louisiana, including Galveston Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Fort Bend, Waller, Harris, and Liberty Counties.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Southeast Texas until 7 p.m. Tuesday.

5:00 a.m.
Tropical Storm Nicholas strengthened as of a 4 a.m. National Hurricane Center advisory, but it is moving faster.

It's moving north-northwest near 14 mph. It's expected to turn northward later today and north-northeastward on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts.





EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts close to 20" especially near our coastal areas. Areas northwest of Houston will see slightly lower totals most likely between 2-6".

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass through the upper TX coastline and into southwestern Louisiana.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, Brazoria, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas starting Monday and continuing through Monday night.

LANDFALL TIMING:


Landfall is expected to occur in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay sometime Monday evening. This means the worst impacts from Nicholas will begin Monday afternoon and increase through the night, subsiding by Tuesday afternoon.

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:


The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. It runs southwest along the coast to Port Arthur. It also extends inland into Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, and coastal Brazoria Counties.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High Island, Texas and now covers all of our local coastline down through Calhoun County. The tropical storm warning also extends inland into Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Galveston, southeast Harris, Jackson, southern Liberty, and Matagorda Counties.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Galveston Island to Rutherford Beach, Louisiana, including Galveston Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Fort Bend, Waller, Harris, and Liberty Counties.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Southeast Texas until 7 p.m. Tuesday.

September 12


11:35 p.m.
The National Hurricane Center confirms Nicolas's center has reformed nearly 150 miles north-northwest of the previous center, and they have issued a new track forecast. The track has shifted westward with landfall as early as Monday evening.



EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts close to 20" especially near our coastal areas. Areas northwest of Houston will see slightly lower totals most likely between 2-6".

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass through the upper TX coastline and into southwestern Louisiana.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, Brazoria, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas starting Monday and continuing through Monday night.

LANDFALL TIMING:


Landfall is expected to occur in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay sometime Monday evening. This means the worst impacts from Nicholas will begin Monday afternoon and increase through the night, subsiding by Tuesday afternoon.

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:


The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. It runs southwest along the coast to Port Arthur. It also extends inland into Calhoun, Jackson, & Matagorda Counties.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High Island, Texas and now covers all of our local coastline down through Calhoun County. The tropical storm warning also extends inland into Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Galveston, southeast Harris, Jackson, southern Liberty, and Matagorda Counties.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Galveston Island to Rutherford Beach, Louisiana, including Galveston Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Fort Bend, Waller, Harris, and Liberty Counties.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Southeast Texas until 7 p.m. Tuesday.

September 12


11:30 p.m.
Hurricane Hunters have found the center of Nicholas has reformed to the southeast of Brownsville and now has winds of 50 mph.



September 12


10 p.m.

Tropical Storm Nicholas is expected to strengthen as it moves north overnight. The center is also expected to reform, which could change the track and the expectations for what will occur in your neighborhood. Nicholas will most likely make landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning as a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane. The track has shifted a little to the east. This has caused a northeastward extension of the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm warnings.



September 12


7 p.m.
Tropical Storm Nicholas slowly moves north at only 2 mph and is expected to move north/northwest towards the TX coastline tonight and Monday.

No changes to the previous watches or warnings issued at 4 pm.


EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts close to 20" especially near our coastal areas. Areas northwest of Houston will see slightly lower totals most likely between 1-4".

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass to High Island.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas starting Monday and continuing through Monday night.

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:


The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. The tropical storm warning also extends inland into Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, & Brazoria Counties.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Bolivar Peninsula, Chambers Co, coastal Galveston, coastal Harris, and Galveston Island.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sargent. It also includes inland Calhoun, Jackson, & Matagorda Counties.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Fort Bend, Waller, Harris, southern Liberty, Galveston, & Chambers County.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Southeast Texas until 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Nicholas has been slowly drifting to the north today, but it's expected to pick up a little steam later tonight into tomorrow... moving north/northwest at 12 mph. On the latest forecast track, the center of Nicholas will move onshore along the coast of south or central TX Monday or early Tuesday.

September 12


4 p.m.
Tropical Storm Nicholas expected to strengthen as it moves northwest towards the TX Gulf coast. Storm Surge warnings, tropical storm watches/warnings, and hurricane watches have been issued for parts of the TX coastline and areas inland.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts close to 20" especially near our coastal areas. Areas northwest of Houston will see slightly lower totals most likely between 1-4".

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass to High Island.

Wind: Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas starting Monday and continuing through Monday night.

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:


The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. The tropical storm warning also extends inland into Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, & Brazoria Counties.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Bolivar Peninsula, Chambers Co, coastal Galveston, coastal Harris, and Galveston Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sargent. It also includes inland Calhoun, Jackson, & Matagorda Counties.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Fort Bend, Waller, Harris, southern Liberty, Galveston, & Chambers County.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Southeast Texas until 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to track north-northwest through the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to continue this track as it approaches the TX coastline. It is forecast to make landfall along the middle TX coast as a tropical storm late Monday night though intensification to a hurricane cannot be completely ruled out.

This system has the potential to bring widespread heavy which could lead to flooding across parts of SE Texas especially towards the coast. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas along I-10 and south.

September 12


2 p.m.
There are no changes to the watches and warnings at this time, but the National Hurricane Center notes the center appears to be reforming farther north, which would shift the path Nicholas takes.



EXPECTED IMPACTS:


Rainfall: Assuming Nicholas doesn't stall, 5-10" of rain will be common along and east of the storms path with isolated accumulations over 15". If Nicholas stalls as some of our computer models suggest, rainfall accumulations could exceed 20" along and east of the path.

Storm Surge: The storm surge tide could reach 2-4 feet above ground along the upper Texas coastline.

Wind: Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly as far north as the I-10 corridor Monday night and Tuesday. If Nicholas intensifies more than expected, hurricane force wind gusts will be possible along the coast in a small region near the center.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas starting Monday night and continuing through at least Tuesday.

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from north of Port Aransas to High Island. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Southeast Texas until 7 p.m. Tuesday.


The center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by reconnaissance aircraft around 130 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, and 405 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Scattered showers and storms out ahead of Nicholas will impact the area today, with more significant rain and potential flooding starting Monday and lasting through at least Tuesday. There is some model disagreement on how long the rain will linger in our area, but be prepared for heavy rain through at least the early part of next week, with the highest rainfall totals (5-10+ inches) along the coast. Tropical Storm Force winds are also possible, but more likely along the coast.

September 12


10 a.m.
Tropical Storm Nicholas formed Sunday morning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the National Hurricane Center has issued a series of watches and warnings for the Texas coast.

5 a.m.
All eyes are on 94L, a system in the southwestern Gulf that is expected to become a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours (if not sooner). As it lifts north we'll see widespread rain on Monday. Beyond Monday there is some significant model disagreement, with the potential for significant flooding early/mid-week if the storm moves inland to our west, and less of a flood threat if the storm tracks along our coast and towards Louisiana. Either way we need to be prepared for heavy rains and potential flooding, particularly those closer to the coast.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, although storms can form before and after those dates.

During hurricane season, ABC13 meteorologists will provide daily tropical weather updates on this page.







RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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